Oil prices hit their first weekly gains in three weeks, jobs report hits Fed's hope for interest rate cuts, gold prices are limited, demand expectations boost

Basic news

On Monday (June 9, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3317.08, and gold prices fell by more than 1% last Friday. The previously stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report hit the hope of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut this year, and silver once surged to its highest level since 2012; U.S. crude oil trading was around 64.61 US dollars per barrel, and oil prices rose for the first weekly increase in three weeks last week. Thanks to the positive US employment report and the restart of trade negotiations, this has increased people's hope for global economic growth.

Stock market

U.S. stocks closed higher last Friday after a better-than-expected employment report eased market concerns about the U.S. economy. Tesla rebounded, regaining some of the lost ground when the previous trade fell sharply.

Powering from rising technology stocks, the S&P 500 closed above 6,000 for the first time since February 21. U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday that three of his cabinet officials will discuss the trade deal on June 9.

Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group, said: "The market will chase the carrots of the trade agreement at any time. The key is whether any actual agreement can be reached."

U.S. data shows that non-farm jobs increased by 139,000 in May, and the number of revisions in April was 147,000. Economists surveyed by Reuters had previously predicted that 130,000 jobs would increase. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, in line with expectations.

After the report was released, traders believed that Fed policymakers had no reason to rush to cut interest rates. Interest rate futures market forecast, the Fed will waitRate cuts will only be cut in September, and only once will be cut in December. The Fed will meet later this month.

The weaker than expected private employment data and service sector surveys last week raised concerns that trade uncertainty could lead to an economic slowdown. The S&P 500 hit its three-month highest on Friday, but is still more than 2% below its record high set in February. The Dow also rose to its highest level in three months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to 42,762.62 points; the S&P 500 rose 1.03% to 6,000.32 points; and the Nasdaq rose 1.20% to 19,529.95 points. Last week, the S&P index rose 1.5%, the Dow rose 1.17%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.18%.

Tesla rose 3.8% after falling about 15% on Thursday after Trump and Musk openly quarrel, including threatening to cut off the government's contract with Musk's xm-forex.company. Other giant stocks also rose. Amazon rose 2.7%, while Alphabet climbed 3.25%. Broadcom fell 5% after the network and custom artificial intelligence chip (AI) maker's quarterly revenue forecast failed to impress investors. Gold prices fell more than 1% last Friday, after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report hit the hope of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut this year, with silver soaring to its highest level since 2012. Spot gold fell 1.1% to $3316.13 per ounce, while U.S. futures gold closed down 0.8% at $3346.60 per ounce.

The U.S. Department of Labor reported that non-farm jobs increased by 139,000 in May, while economists surveyed by Reuters expected an increase of 130,000. The unemployment rate is 4.2%, in line with expectations. Marex analyst Edward Meir said the data meets expectations, which is a disadvantage for gold, as the data suggests the Fed will remain silent for a while.

After the data was released, the financial market bet that the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates until September, and will cut interest rates twice in 2025, reducing bets that may make a third rate cut.

Spot silver fell 0.5% to $35.96, after hitting its highest in more than 13 years. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said silver's rise "looks like it was driven by speculative capital flows, which was too cheap xm-forex.compared to gold, breaking through the $35/ounce mark amplified the silver trend."

Platinum rose 2.5%, hitting its highest since March 2022 at $1,158.20; palladium rose 3.9% to $1,045.45. Both metals are expected to achieve weekly gains.

Oil market

Crude oil prices rose more than $1 last Friday, marking the first weekly increase in three weeks, thanks to the positive U.S. employment report and the restart of trade negotiations, which boosted hopes for growth in the two major economies around the world. Brent crude futures rise 1.73%, settlement price was $66.47 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures closed at $64.58, up 1.91%.

The crude oil prices of the two major indicators closed higher last week after falling for two consecutive weeks. Brent crude oil prices rose 2.75% last week, while U.S. crude oil prices rose 4.9%. "I think the employment report is just right," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst at PriceFuturesGroup. "The data is not too hot or too cold, but it just increases the likelihood of the Fed's rate cut." The U.S. Department of Labor's monthly employment report showed that the unemployment rate stabilized at 4.2% in May. Employers have created 139,000 new jobs, plus the data in the previous two months have been revised down, indicating that labor demand has cooled down, but the decline is not large; in xm-forex.comparison, an average of 160,000 new jobs were created per month last year. The Fed's interest rate cut could stimulate economic growth and oil demand.

On Saturday, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, agreed to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. This is part of OPEC+'s broader strategy to regain market share. The group rejected Saudi Arabia's proposal to increase production more significantly. "Based on our estimates, the market looks balanced in the second/third quarter as oil demand rises in the summer and peaks in July-August, matching OPEC+ supply growth," HSBC said in a report.

Foreign market

The dollar rose against other major currencies last Friday as data showed better-than-expected U.S. employment growth in May was even higher than expected, although growth slowed from the previous month, suggesting that the Fed may wait longer before cutting interest rates.

U.S. Department of Labor data shows employers added 139,000 jobs in May, less than 147,000 in April, but surpassed the 130,000 increase predicted by a Reuters survey of economists.

The US dollar rose 0.95% against the Japanese Yen to 144.87 yen and rose 0.26% against the Swiss franc to 0.822. After the data was released, the US dollar's rise against these two safe-haven currencies expanded. The dollar rose against the yen and the Swiss franc for the second consecutive week, but has fallen by about 8% and about 9% year-on-year to date respectively.

Moneycorp North American structural director Eugene Epstein said the dollar has been dragged down by uncertainty over President Trump's tariff policies and trading partner negotiation prospects, bills that the U.S. Senate is considering after the House passed the deficit spending and tax bill and the recent trajectory of economic data.

But Epstein said that after economic data, including employment data, was stronger than expected, the market began to reverse some short positions in the US dollar. "Every bank predicts the dollar will weaken, and I think it may be the right judgment in the long run. But now, with the strong employment data and hourly wage data, the USYuan’s position is too much, and everything suddenly reverses. These figures are generally stronger, and now the good news becomes bad news, as 10-year Treasury yields rise, so interest rate cuts won't xm-forex.come. "

Euro/USD immediately expanded its decline against the dollar after employment data was released, with New York falling 0.43% to $1.1395 late trading. The euro/USD has risen about 10% so far this year.

Euro/USD hit a six-week high of $1.14950 last Thursday and will usher in a weekly gain.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, rose 0.53% to 99.20, but recorded a weekly decline.

International News

The probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in September fell to 59.8%, last week Five is 88%

According to CME's "Feder Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in June is 99.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 0.1%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 83.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 16.5%. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in September is 40.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point and 50 basis points cut is 51.2% and 8.6% respectively.

The Los Angeles Police Department in California announced that the city has entered a tactical alert state

On the afternoon of June 8, local time, police officers wearing riot equipment in California Police Department in Edward Roybar (Ed wardRoybal) retreated after confronting protesters near the federal building. Around the same time, the Los Angeles Police Department announced that the city had entered a tactical alert state, allowing supervisors to keep police officers on duty in case of emergency or major events and maintain a high level of staffing. It is reported that such alarms are intended to authorize police officers to work overtime.

Iran has obtained a large amount of sensitive intelligence to touch the weakness of the United States and Israel to escalate conflicts

Iran said it has possessed thousands of confidential documents on Israel's nuclear program, which has attracted global attention. Analysts believe that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu may take this opportunity to create a new round of tensions with Iran. Iran's move is considered a major victory for its intelligence agencies , it is also a revelation of Israel's nuclear plan. Although Israel has not responded publicly to the incident, analysts believe that Netanyahu, who is deeply involved in corruption allegations, may divert domestic attention. This incident not only touches the weakness of the United States and Israel, but also highlights the double standards of the United States and Israel on the nuclear issue. Iran's strategic considerations include deterring Israel, increasing bargaining chips in nuclear negotiations, and strengthening anti-Israel and supportive cohesion in the region. The secret war between the two sides is expected to continue to be fierce, which also reflects the security dilemma of increasing hostility and deterrence within the Middle East.

ECB Management xm-forex.committee Eskriva: The benchmark interest rate path may need to be fine-tuned

Eskri, President of the Spanish Central Bank and member of the European Central Bank Management xm-forex.committeeWa said the current benchmark assumptions guiding the ECB’s monetary policy may need to be adjusted. In an interview with The National on Sunday, he pointed out: "In an environment full of uncertainty, it is crucial to maintain policy flexibility. The benchmark scenario we are currently using - GDP growth of about 1% and inflation rate 2% - may require some fine adjustments if verified by data." He specifically mentioned that part of the uncertainty stems from the policy direction of US President Trump, which may lead to two-way fluctuations in inflation. Eskriva expressed "high agreement" with the ECB's progressive strategy, emphasizing that the strategy is "based on a continuous assessment of the data and does not promise any interest rate path in advance."

European Central Bank Schnabel: It is the right time to enhance the euro's status

Isabel? Isabel Schnabel believes that as investors turn to Europe, there is currently a "window of opportunity" to enhance the euro's international status. Schnabel noted that investors are focusing on Europe to diversify their portfolio, which she called a "positive confidence effect." Including Schnabel and Christina? European officials, including Christine Lagarde, are relying on Donald? President Trump's crackdown on global trade and U.S. agencies seeks to strengthen the euro's global position.

The US State Department instructed the consulate to resume processing of Harvard University's international student visas

According to the Washington Post on June 7, the US State Department notified embassies and consulates around the world on the 6th to resume applying for visas for international students preparing to study at Harvard University. This decision overturned the visa rejection order just issued on the 5th. According to reports, a telegram sent by the U.S. State Department at 19:55 on the 6th stated that "Now, the consular department must resume processing of Harvard student and exchange visitors visas." At present, the official website of the U.S. State Department has not yet released relevant information.

According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. trade negotiation team extends its stay in India

According to people familiar with the matter, the U.S. trade team currently negotiating in India has extended its stay, indicating that the negotiations between the two sides are making progress before the July deadline. Since the information has not been disclosed, the relevant person requested anonymity. They said the team initially planned to hold talks with Indian officials from June 5 to 6 and has decided to stay until Tuesday to continue the discussion. According to these people, most of the issues may be finalized within a week. India and the United States are working on a phased trade deal and plan to reach a preliminary agreement in July on the deadline for the so-called reciprocity tariffs. Meanwhile, these tariffs are facing legal challenges in Washington.

The British Labor government faces a £2 trillion budget allocation that will determine the direction of four years of governance

The British Chancellor Reeves will allocate more than £2 trillion ($2.7 trillion) of public funds to her ministerial colleagues on Wednesday, and will determine what the Labor government, which has been in power for one year, can achieve in the next four years.

The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles in the United States said that the port employment opportunities are sharpGene Seroca, executive director of the Port of Los Angeles, the largest and busiest container port in the United States, said about half of the dock workers involved in the operation of the port of Los Angeles from late May to early June. According to the Los Angeles Times on the 7th, Seroca said in an interview that the port of Los Angeles handled about 25% of the freight volume in May was lower than expected; dock workers were not laid off, but their job opportunities were not as many as before. Since the introduction of the US tariff policy, especially in the past May, "we have really seen a downward trend in work."

Domestic News

Cui Dongshu: New energy vehicle promotions dropped to the mid-to-high 11% in May, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month

Cui Dongshu posted on June 8 that the intensity of price reduction promotions in 2025 has been greatly reduced, especially the price reduction models in March-May have been significantly reduced. In January 2025, 7 models were lowered, 21 models were lowered in February, and the number of models in March was also a higher level of 23 models xm-forex.compared with history. In April, only 14 models were lowered, and in May, only 12 models were clearly announced for the price reduction or new cars were newly priced, which remained relatively stable xm-forex.compared with the 11 models in May last year and the 20 models in 2023. As the national scrapping and renewal promotional subsidies strengthened, the market has recovered and the pulling effect on the auto market is very obvious. Therefore, the pressure on the price war from January to mid-May has been relatively slowed down. Due to xm-forex.competition differentiation, the promotion of new energy vehicles rebounded significantly in May. In May 2025, the promotion of new energy vehicles fell to the mid-to-high level of 11%, an increase of 1.3 points from the same period and an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month.

Last year, my country's GDP exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time

June 8 is the 17th "World Ocean Day" and the 18th "National Ocean Propaganda Day". The "2025 China Marine Economic Development Index" released by the Ministry of Natural Resources in Hainan shows that my country's GDP exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time last year, an increase of 5.9% over the previous year.

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