Oil prices fell by more than 2%, and the market showed low buying. Gold prices reversed and rose. Demand concerns dragged down

Basic news

On Tuesday (April 29 Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3336, and gold prices reversed the decline and rose on Monday, as there was a low buying bid, the market focused on trade development and a series of economic data; US crude oil trading was around 61.97 US dollars per barrel, and oil prices fell more than 2% on Monday. The economic concerns caused by the trade war brought pressure on demand. At the same time, some OPEC+ member states will recommend the alliance to accelerate production growth for the second consecutive month at the meeting on May 5.

Stock and P.P.500 closed basically flat on Monday, with intraday volatility, dragged down by super large stocks, and investors focused on several driving factors such as key economic data and the profits of several large U.S. xm-forex.companies.

The super-large stock Nvidia fell 2.1% and Amazon fell 0.7%, which was the main factor dragging down the S&P 500, and also caused the Nasdaq to close down.

Among the seven tech giants, Amazon, Apple, MetaPlatform and Microsoft will announce quarterly results this week. Apple rose 0.4% and Meta rose 0.5%, helping offset the drag from Nvidia and Amazon.

This week, a total of 180 S&P 500 xm-forex.companies announced their results, and investors may closely monitor how new tariffs from U.S. President Trump will affect corporate profits in the future. Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at CressetCapital in Chicago, said: "Four out of the seven tech giants released their earnings this week, so it's a very important earnings week. I'd love to hear any kind of forward-looking guidance and listen to some CEOs talking about it."It would be very interesting to plan how they plan to deal with potential trade wars. ”

Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.28% to 40227.59 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.06% to 5528.75 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.10% to 17366.13 points. The S&P 500 index rose for the fifth day, the longest-lasting gain since early November last year.

Although the S&P 500 xm-forex.component xm-forex.companies are expected to increase 10.9% in the first quarter xm-forex.compared with the same period last year, many xm-forex.companies have warned about uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy, and some xm-forex.companies have lowered or withdrawn their earnings forecasts altogether.

Although, according to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), the S&P 500 xm-forex.component xm-forex.companies are expected to increase 10.9% in the first quarter xm-forex.compared to the same period last year, many xm-forex.companies have warned about uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy, and some xm-forex.companies have lowered or withdrawn their earnings forecasts altogether.

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Of the 179 S&P 500 xm-forex.companies that have released their financial reports, 78 have issued negative earnings expectations, and 32 have issued positive earnings expectations, with the ratio of negative to positive expectations being 2.4, slightly lower than the same period a year ago.

Investors will also analyze important economic data, including the personal consumer spending price index (CPI) and a series of labor market data, as well as Friday's highlight of the U.S. monthly employment report.

Boeing shares rose 2.4%, helping the Dow maintain its rally, after Bernstein raised the aircraft maker's stock rating and target price.

<> p>Stock markets have opened stronger, intraday trading fluctuated, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting the highest level before Trump announced tariffs on April 2. Markets have stabilized in recent weeks, helped by optimism about the possible trade deal between the United States and its trading partners.

Currently, the S&P 500 is still about 10% below the all-time high hit in February, and investors are looking for clues to tariff lethality. Most economists surveyed by Reuters say the risk of a global economy falling into a recession this year is high.

Gold market

Gold prices reversed their declines on Monday as low-buy buying, and the market focused on trade developments and a range of economic data. Spot gold on It rose nearly 1% to $3348.05 per ounce, down 1.8% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 1.4% to settle at $3344.0. "We are beginning to see initial signs of the exhaustion of the sell-off momentum," Daniel Ghali, xm-forex.commodity strategist at TD Securities, said, adding that the downside risk of gold is extremely limited. Western investors, especially independent traders or macro funds, have xm-forex.completely insufficient positions in the last round of gold price gains, so selling activity is limited, and the rise in gold prices also reflects this." Reuters survey shows that most economists believe that the risk of a global economy falling into recession this year is high. Data to be released this week include the U.S. job opening report released on Tuesday, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index report on Wednesday, and the non-farm employment report on Friday. Market participants will focus on these data to assess the impact of the latest tariffs on the U.S. economy.

Spot silver fell 0.1% to $33.03 per ounce, while platinum rose 1.5% to $986.05, and palladium fell 0.4% to $947.27.

Oil market

Brent crude oil fell more than $1 on Monday, with economic concerns triggered by the trade war putting pressure on demand. Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $65.86 per barrel, down 1.51%. U.S. crude oil futures closed at $62.05 a barrel, down 1.545%. Brent crude futures rose slightly in the first two trading days, but fell by more than 1% last week.

John Evans, an analyst at brokerage firm PVM, said the trade war is dominating investor sentiment, affecting oil price trends, and exceeding nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran and differences within the OPEC+ alliance.

Gary Cunningham, head of market research at TraditionEnergy, said, "This wait-and-see attitude shown in the negotiations is uncomfortable. If the negotiations are not going well, demand for oil may decline."

Some members of OPEC+ are expected to recommend the alliance to accelerate production growth for the second consecutive month at the May 5 meeting. BNP Paribas expects Brent crude oil prices to reach the upper end of the $60 per barrel range in the second quarter of this year.

At the same time, Iranian Foreign Minister Aragzi said that Iran and the United States continued nuclear negotiations in Oman this week, and he remained "extremely cautious" about the success of the negotiations.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar fell across the board on Monday, with investors cautiously awaiting further news about U.S. trade policy and preparing for a week of intensive economic data that could preliminarily indicate whether the trade war between U.S. President Trump is having an impact.

Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA, Washington, said: "Today's characteristic is that the lower dollar is interrelated with doubts about the stock market. While corporate profits will remain active, the main problem remains that there is insufficient confidence in the positive U.S. economy. The United States is trying to act unilaterally and take advantage of its influence as the world's largest economy."

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Monday, while the Dow Jones fell and rose. In afternoon trading, the dollar fell 1.1% against the yen to 142.10, the biggest single-day drop since April 10. The euro also rose 0.5% against the dollar to $1.1419.

The US dollar fell 0.7% to 0.8205; earlier this trading day, the US dollar rose against the Swiss franc.

The dollar will hit its biggest monthly decline since July last year as Trump shakes confidence in the reliability of U.S. assets.

On the other hand, the euro is expected to hit its biggest monthly gain in nearly 15 years. As the trade tone significantly eased, the dollar did shrink its monthly decline against the euro and yen last weekend.

Best said on Monday that major U.S. trading partners have made "very good" proposals to avoid U.S. tariffs, and one of the first signed deals is likely to be signed with India.

Investors are still waiting for the U.S. jobs report to be released on Friday, and jobs are expected to grow, although the growth rate slows sharply from a month ago.

Feders, including Chairman Powell, have said they are willing to cut interest rates if the risks of economic growth appear. But most officials seem to be more willing to determine the impact of Trump's tariff policy on real economy indicators such as inflation and employment before taking action.

This week, the United States will also release the first-quarter GDP data and the core PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, while Europe will also release GDP and preliminary inflation data.

Monex's Perez said, "The data later may affect the dollar trend, but we are still subject to headlines for clues about trade progress."

Over the Atlantic, the euro fell 0.4% against the pound to 0.8503 pounds as it was reported on Monday that large power outages occurred in most parts of Spain.

Meanwhile, Canadian voters will vote on the election on Monday, with the ruling Liberal Party taking a slight lead in the polls but having a greater lead in the online forecasting market. The options market shows that traders are not prepared to deal with the sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, with the US dollar falling 0.1% against the Canadian dollar to 1.3836 CAD.

On the other hand, the Bank of Japan will formulate monetary policy on Thursday. There is no expectation of policy changes, but the market will focus on the outlook and how policymakers plan to deal with the uncertain economic environment, especially the expectation of currency issues in the U.S.-Japan trade negotiations.

Japanese financial officer Jun Mimura denied a report from the Yomiuri Shimbun on Monday that Becent said in a bilateral meeting with Japan that the weak dollar and a stronger yen are desirable.

International News

Sources: Trump is xm-forex.committed to reaching a larger trade deal

Two sources in the Trump administration said that Trump is reaching a larger trade deal with countries, which is why it takes longer to announce the White House. The deals are more than just reducing Trump’s latest tariffs, the sources added. Japan, Vietnam, Argentina, the United Kingdom, South Korea and the European Union are the most frequently mentioned countries Trump and his trading teams. The White House said last week that its trade team received “18 written proposals” but did not elaborate on which countries submitted the proposals.

Trump seeks to reduce the blow caused by automobile tariffs or take action by Tuesday

According to the Wall Street Journal, people familiar with the matter said Trump is expected to take steps to mitigate the impact of his car tariffs, preventing tariffs on foreign-made cars from being superimposed on other tariffs he has already imposed, and relaxing some of the tariffs imposed on foreign parts used to make cars in the United States. This decision will beIt's also not the automakers that pay Trump's auto tariffs will be subject to other tariffs such as steel and aluminum (the Financial Times reported last week). The Trump administration will also modify tariffs on foreign auto parts – originally scheduled to xm-forex.come into effect on May 3 with a tax rate of 25% – allowing automakers to receive tariff xm-forex.compensation of 3.75% of the value of U.S.-made cars within one year. The second year, subsidies will drop to 2.75% of the value of the car and then be gradually cancelled. Trump is expected to take action before heading to Michigan for a rally outside Detroit on Tuesday night, a 100-day day in office.

Trump announced the establishment of a review xm-forex.committee. Federal disaster relief aid funds may be more difficult to distribute.

Trump announced the establishment of the Federal Emergency Administration (FEMA) Bureau Review xm-forex.committee on social media, including Secretary of Defense Hegseyth, Secretary of Homeland Security Nom, Governor of Texas, Governor of Virginia, former Governor of Mississippi, Michael Watley, Chairman of the Republican National xm-forex.committee, and others. "New members will work to repair a seriously damaged system and return power to national emergency management personnel, who will help to keep the United States safe again. Congratulations!" After media reports that Trump administration officials discussed starting this hurricane season, it will make it more difficult to qualify for federal disaster aid. Responsibility to deal with disasters and recovery xm-forex.communities will be shifted more to states than to federal governments.

The U.S. Treasury raised its quarterly borrowing estimates as debt deadlock dragged down cash balances

The U.S. Treasury raised its forecast for the quarter's federal borrowing scale to reflect the initial cash balance is much lower than previous forecasts, as Congress has not yet raised the federal debt ceiling. The Treasury Department said in a statement on Monday that it is currently expected to have a net borrowing of $514 billion from April to June, up from the estimated $123 billion in February. As usual, the Ministry of Finance assumed in previous forecasts that the debt ceiling would be raised or suspended, but lawmakers are still negotiating on the issue. In February, the Ministry of Finance estimated that the cash balance by the end of March was US$850 billion, but it was actually only about US$406 billion. Due to debt restrictions, the government cannot increase the scale of issuance of treasury bonds. The Treasury Department on Monday maintained its expectations for a cash balance of $850 billion at the end of June, continuing to assume that the debt ceiling issue will be resolved during this period.

Iran proposes to meet with Europe before the next round of negotiations with the United States

According to foreign media reports, four diplomats said on Monday that if negotiations with the United States resume, Iran may meet with European parties in Rome on Friday in 2015 nuclear deal, reminding that the European side has not yet responded to the idea. Omani officials said a new round of US-Iran talks may be held in Europe on May 3. No formal decision has been made yet. Iran extends an olive branch to the UK, France and Germany (i.e. E3), which shows that Tehran is still retaining options, and also hopes to assess the European side by OctoberPossible re-implementation of UN sanctions -- by then, a resolution to ratify the 2015 nuclear agreement will expire. Two E3 diplomats and a Western diplomat said Iran made a proposal to hold talks in Rome on Friday after talks with the United States last Saturday. Diplomats said that if this is impossible, Iran also recommends a discussion in Tehran before this date.

The European Central Bank Deputy Governor warned of the risks of market turmoil and called for strict prevention of the crisis

European Central Bank Deputy Governor Luis deGuindos said that volatile financial markets must be closely monitored to prevent the risk of falling out of control. He spoke to European Parliament members in Brussels on Monday that officials should not take it lightly, despite the eurozone banking system still being resilient. Guindos said recent trade policy turmoil has triggered the worst financial market turmoil since the pandemic, and these developments need to be closely monitored. If the financial market undergoes drastic adjustment, especially as the scale and influence of non-bank financial institutions are increasing, it may evolve into a disorderly situation.

Domestic News

National Development and Reform xm-forex.commission: We are full of confidence in achieving this year's economic and social development goals and tasks. Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of the National Development and Reform xm-forex.commission, said at a press conference held by the State Information Office on April 28 that we still have rich policy reserves and sufficient policy space. We will accelerate the implementation of several measures to stabilize employment and economy, promote the implementation of various policies as soon as possible, pay more attention to improving the efficiency and implementation effect of policies, and ensure direct access to enterprises and the masses; at the same time, we will strive to promote the implementation of established policies, including special actions to boost consumption, make good use of 5 trillion yuan of investment funds at the national level this year, and accelerate the establishment of a national venture capital guidance fund. Most of these policies will be implemented in the second quarter, and the consistency of policy orientation will be continuously strengthened, and policy research and reserves will be made in a normal and exposed manner, and the policy toolbox will be fully prepared, and the policy toolbox will be continuously improved to stabilize employment and economy, and to timely introduce incremental reserve policies according to changes in the situation. No matter how the international situation changes, we will anchor our development goals, maintain strategic determination, and concentrate on doing our own things well. We are full of confidence in achieving this year's economic and social development goals and tasks.

China Gold Association: In the first quarter of 2025, my country increased its holdings of gold by 12.75 tons. As of the end of March, my country's gold reserves were 2292.33 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, my country's gold market trading volume and transaction volume showed a significant growth trend. The cumulative trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 16,000 tons bilaterally (8,000 tons unilaterally), an increase of 4.57% year-on-year, and the transaction volume of 10.70 trillion yuan (5.35 trillion yuan unilaterally), an increase of 42.85% year-on-year; the cumulative trading volume of all gold varieties on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 55,400 tons bilaterally (27,700 tons unilaterally), an increase of 91.17% year-on-year, and the transaction volume of 30.52 trillion yuan (15.26 trillion yuan unilaterally), an increase of 143..69%. In the first quarter of 2025, domestic gold ETF positions increased by 23.47 tons, an increase of 5.49 tons from the first quarter of 2024 year-on-year. By the end of March, the domestic gold ETF holdings were 138.21 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, my country's gold consumption was 290.492 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.96%. Among them: 134.531 tons of gold jewelry, a year-on-year decrease of 26.85%; 138.018 tons of gold bars and gold coins, a year-on-year increase of 29.81%; 17.943 tons of industrial and other gold, a year-on-year decrease of 3.84%.

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