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Gold is under short-term fluctuations, and Europe and the United States focus on daily trends and break the deadlock
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: Gold is under low-key fluctuations, and Europe and the United States focus on the daily trend and breaking the deadline." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Macro
Hot topics in the political and economic fields of the United States appeared frequently last week. In terms of economic policy, Trump pressured Fed Powell to soften his position due to market opposition and other aspects; Becent expressed his position in the US-Japan trade negotiations and revealed the progress of the US-India tariff agreement. In international trade, the IMF lowered global and US economic growth expectations due to US tariff adjustments, and China responded to US tariff adjustments and emphasized equal dialogue. Within the US government, the "group chat gate" incident has attracted attention, Defense Secretary Hegsey was questioned but supported by Trump, and Musk and Becente had a fierce dispute. In terms of international diplomacy, the United States drafted a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and Trump and Vance expressed their views; OPEC+ oil production has differences, and Kazakhstan's attitude has attracted speculation. Looking ahead to this week, the Federal Reserve enters a "silence period". The Bank of Japan may assess the impact of tariffs. A series of U.S. economic data will be released, affecting market sentiment and Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts. The euro zone is hit by tariffs. Canada held a general election on Monday, and the impact of different election results on the Canadian dollar and stock markets varies.
Dollar Index
In terms of the performance of the US dollar index, the US dollar index showed an upward trend last Friday. The price of the US dollar index rose to 99.864 on the day, and fell to 99.241 at the lowest, and finally closed at 99.588. Looking back at the market performance last Friday, the price gained support in the early trading period and then ran upward. After that, the European and American markets fluctuated slightly. Finally, the daily price positive line ended, and the weekly line had a performance of stopping upward. Therefore, the focus will be on the breakthrough of the daily resistance position at 99.80. After the subsequent breakthrough, the band is expected to rise.
From a multi-cycle analysis, the price is suppressed in the 103.90 area resistance at the weekly level, so from a medium-term perspective, the United StatesThe trend of the Metal Index will be more bearish. At the daily level, the price is suppressed at the resistance level of the 99.80 area. Then, the short-seller's idea is to operate from the band, but you need to be careful of the price breaking again and standing on the daily resistance. The short-term four-hour support is 99.50 and 99.20. The price will remain relatively bullish in the short term. The upper part of the market will pay attention to the gains and losses of daily resistance. Once the price breaks up, the subsequent band is expected to start a wave of upwards. Please pay attention to the market rhythm.
The US dollar index has a long range of 99.40-50, with a defense of 5 US dollars, and a target of 99.80-100.20-100.60
Gold
In terms of gold, the overall price of gold showed a decline last Friday, with the highest price rising to 3370.53 on the day, and the lowest fell to 3264.96 on the spot, closing at 3316.21 on the spot. In response to the short-term rise and fall of the early trading session last Thursday, the price fell below the four-hour support again, and then it stopped near the recent low of 3260. Finally, the price ended on the dark side of the day, and the weekly online price showed further pressure and correction. So this week, focus on the gains and losses of 3260 regions.
From a multi-cycle analysis, first observe the monthly rhythm. The price has risen in the early stage for three months and then a single-month correction. Recently, it has risen in the recent four months and has seen a single-month correction. Therefore, according to the rhythm, the overall bullish look in April, but for May, we must pay attention to market risks. From the weekly level, gold prices are supported by the support level in the 3040 area. So from a mid-term perspective, we can continue to maintain a bullish view. From the daily level, the current price is supported by the 3260 regional support and continues to look bullish from the perspective of the band, but the subsequent market will further break, so the focus will be on the follow-up. At the same time, for the short-term four-hour upper price fluctuating and consolidation in a four-hour key position recently, pay attention to the resistance of the 3387 and 3370 area above, pay attention to the 3260 area below, and the overall tends to fluctuate temporarily. After the subsequent fall below the lower edge, pay attention to further continuation.
Gold 3370-3371 is short in the range, defense is 3390, and target is 3260-3200 (if it breaks the daily line first, you need to pay attention to the continuation in the future)
European and the United States
In terms of Europe and the United States, prices in Europe and the United States were generally downward last Friday. The price fell to 1.1315 on the day and rose to 1.1391 on the spot and closed at 1.1359 on the spot. Looking back at the performance of European and American markets last Friday, the morning opening price first fell continuously in the short term, and then approached near the recent low point before stopping. Although there was a rebound in the future, the overall daily and weekly lines ended in the negative line. Following the attention of the dayContinuation after offline break.
From a multi-cycle analysis, from the monthly level, Europe and the United States are supported by 1.0770, so long-term bulls are treated. From the weekly level, the price is supported by the 1.0840 area, and continue to look bullish from the perspective of the midline. From the daily level, the price is supported by the regional support of 1.1330-1.1300, so the band is treated with the same bullish ideas, but in recent market performance, we need to pay attention to further pressure performance after breaking the daily support. From the short-term four-hour level, the price has maintained a consolidation up and down at a key position of four hours in recent days, so we should pay attention to the range oscillation for the time being, and the short-term range is between 1.1300 and 1.1400. At the same time, as long as the price is below the 1.1440 position, it will maintain a short oscillation and short treatment. Once the lower edge is broken, we should pay attention to further accelerated performance.
Europe and the United States have a short range of 1.1390-1.1400, defense is 40 points, target 1.1330-1.1270
[Finance data and events that are focused today] Monday, April 28, 2025
①To be determined Canada holds a federal election
②10:00 State Information Office holds a press conference
③18:00 UK April CBI retail sales difference
④22:30 US April Dallas Fed Business Activities Index
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