This week, the focus is on whether the non-agricultural + Ukraine agreement can be reached. Trump's remarks change at any time, increasing the fluctuations in gold prices

Basic news

On Monday (April 28, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3305. The market was cautiously optimistic about tariffs, and risk aversion sentiment eased. However, Trump's remarks changed at any time. According to Reuters, US President Trump said in the morning that the meeting with Zelensky was progressing smoothly, and he was very disappointed with Russia, which may once again increase market uncertainty; US crude oil trading was around 63.33 USD/barrel. This week the oil market focused on the Ukrainian agreement. In addition, non-agricultural data will be ushered in this week. In terms of uncertainty in tariffs, non-agricultural data has become an important data reflecting the impact of the US economy by tariffs.

The focus of the day is on: the difference in retail sales of the UK in April; the federal elections held in Canada; the European Central Bank Management xm-forex.committee Renne delivered a speech; the annual meeting of the United Nations Economic and Social Council, during which a high-level special meeting will be held with the World Bank, the IMF, the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) until April 29.

Stock market

U.S. stocks rose last Friday and recorded weekly gains as investors analysed a series of corporate financial reports and looked for signs of easing trade disputes. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were boosted by the rise of the "big seven" related to artificial intelligence, while the blue-chip Dow Jones Index performed relatively flat. The small-cap Russell 2000 index hit its biggest weekly percentage gain since November last year.

AXSInvestments CEO Greg Bassuk said, "We are looking forward to bringing a perfect end to this pretty strong week," said Greg Bassuk, CEO of AXSInvestments in New York.The market sell-off sentiment started the week, but then there was a real strong rebound. The market performed quite strongly last week, largely triggered by expectations of a downgrade in the trade war. ”

The first quarter financial report quarter has been fully launched, with 179 of the S&P 500 xm-forex.companies having released their financial reports. According to data from the London Stock Exchange (LSEG), 73% of the performance exceeded expectations. According to LSEG statistics, analysts currently expect that the total revenue of the S&P 500 xm-forex.companies in the first quarter will increase by 9.7% year-on-year, higher than the expected 8.0% on April 1.

But investors basically ignored past performance and analyzed forward-looking guidance, especially due to economic uncertainty and consumers. The forecast for spending was curbed and downward or withdrawn.

The University of Michigan released the final value of the Consumer Confidence Index in April, which, despite the upward revision, is still at its lowest level since July 2022, and inflation expectations remain high.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.05% to 40,113.50 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.74% to 5,525.21 points; the Nasdaq rose 1.26% to 17,382.94 points.

The 11 majors in the S&P 500 Consumer discretionary products and technologies lead the rise, while materials stocks suffer the most percentage losses.

Google parent Alphabet shares rose 1.7% as cloud revenues rose 28% and assured investors that its AI investments were paying off. Chipmaker Intel fell 6.7% as it provided weak revenue and profit forecasts.

Oilfield service provider SLB shares fell 1.2%. The xm-forex.company's first-quarter profit fell 1.7% and warned that the industry could be a full-scale industry due to economic uncertainty and tariff risks.

Gold market

Gold prices fell 2% last Friday and recorded weekly declines as the dollar rose and the market believed that trade tensions showed signs of easing, putting gold prices under pressure. Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,292.99 per ounce, and had fallen 2% earlier in the session. Last week, gold prices fell 1.2%.

Donald Securities xm-forex.commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said: "The obvious easing of tariffs has negatively impacted gold prices, but there has not been a large-scale clearance. However, we know that they have continued to buy on dips in the past few trading days, so we think gold can resume its upward trajectory. ”

Earlier last week, U.S. President Trump suggested easing the tit-for-tat tariff war and said direct negotiations were in progress. However, on the weekend news, there seems to be no sign of easing. Meanwhile, the dollar rose, achieving its first weekly gain since March, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers.

Otherwise, spot silver fell 1.6% to $33.03 per ounce,The rise continued in the third week. Platinum fell 0.5% to $965.53; palladium fell 1.8% to $936.89. Oil market

Oil prices rose slightly last Friday, but fell on the weekly basis, weighed on by market expectations of oversupply and uncertainty in tariff negotiations.

The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rose 32 cents to $66.87 a barrel, down 1.6% last week. U.S. crude oil rose 23 cents to $63.02 a barrel, down 2.6% weekly. "Directors now believe crude oil prices are unlikely to rise further in the near term due to the ongoing trade war between the world's largest consumer countries and market speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate production growth from June."

Ole Hansen, an analyst at Saxo Bank, said: "As a result of the ongoing trade war between the world's largest consumer countries and the speculation that OPEC+ may accelerate production growth from June, traders now believe crude oil prices are unlikely to rise further in the near term."

As tariffs sparked investors' concerns about global demand and a sell-off in financial markets, oil prices fell to their lowest point in four years earlier this month. While economic weakness may weaken demand, supply may increase.

According to earlier Reuters, several OPEC+ member states recommended that the organization accelerate production growth for the second consecutive month in June.

If the Ukrainian War ends and more Russian oil can enter the global market, it is also possible to increase oil supply.

On the 25th local time, Russian President Putin held talks with Ukraine's special envoy to the Middle East in the Kremlin on the issue of Ukraine. This is Putin's fourth meeting with Witkov this year. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov revealed on the same day that the meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, lasted for three hours, which was constructive. He said the meeting discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Iran and the United States said on Saturday that the two sides had agreed to continue nuclear negotiations this week, but Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said "extremely cautious" about whether the negotiations aimed at resolving the decades of deadlock will be successful.

Foreign exchange market

The US dollar climbed last Friday and ushered in its first weekly rise since mid-March. Last week, there were conflicting signs of whether tariff tensions tended to ease, causing the US dollar to fluctuate.

The US dollar index rose about 0.07% last Friday, with a slight weekly increase, which will be the first increase since mid-March.

CityIndex market strategist Fiona Cincotta said: "I don't think it must be clearer now, but it seems there is no sign of further escalation. It feels like things are moving in another direction. If there is any difference, it seems to be more inclined to ease than upgrade. We have seen the dollar go out of the oversold zone. But it is definitely too early to open champagne for the dollar's recovery, and we are not yet at that point."

The dollar rose 0.67% against the yen last Friday to 143.555 yen and 0 against the Swiss franc.09%, to CHF 0.827.

The euro fell 0.11% against the US dollar to $1.1377. Despite unexpectedly strong retail sales figures in the UK, the pound fell 0.1% against the dollar to $1.3325. Washington made some progress in early trade talks with Asian allies South Korea and Japan.

Japanese Treasury Secretary Katsunobu Kato said after meeting with US Treasury Secretary Becente that the two sides did not discuss setting exchange rate targets.

Trump previously accused Japan of weakening the yen to give its exporters an advantage. Japan's chief trade negotiator, Economy Regeneration Minister Ryosa Akazawa will hold a second round of bilateral trade negotiations with Becent next week.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said last Thursday that the central bank would continue to raise interest rates if the underlying inflation rate moves closer to the 2% target as expected, but he reiterated that policymakers need to carefully study the impact of U.S. tariffs. It is generally expected that the Bank of Japan will keep interest rates unchanged at a two-day meeting ending on May 1.

International News

Peskov: Trump's many views on the Ukrainian conflict are basically consistent with Russia's position

On April 27, local time, a reporter from the Central Taiwan Taiwan learned that Russian President's press secretary Peskov said in an interview broadcast by Russian media that many views on the Ukrainian conflict are basically consistent with Russia's position. Peskov said that the work to resolve the Ukrainian issue is still underway, but cannot be carried out in an open manner.

Peskov: Putin and the US envoy confirmed that Russia is willing to negotiate with Ukraine without prerequisites

On the 25th local time, Russian President Putin held talks with Ukraine's special envoy Witkov on the Ukraine issue in the Kremlin. This is Putin's fourth meeting with Witkov this year. Russian Presidential Assistant Ushakov revealed on the same day that the meeting between Russian President Putin and U.S. Special Envoy for the Middle East, Witkov, lasted for three hours, which was constructive. He said the meeting discussed the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

Trump tariffs hit U.S. freight volume, and rating agencies lowered U.S. port outlook to negative

For U.S. ports, this is probably not a good sign: Moody's recent research report recently lowered U.S. port outlook for 2025 from "stable to "negative". The agency predicts that under the current tightening of global trade, U.S. container throughput will drop sharply. Data intensively released by international institutions and professional shipping agencies are not optimistic about the current United States. The prospects for freight volume. The World Trade Organization (WTO) stated in its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report that after adjusting baseline forecasts to take into account the impact of recently announced tariffs and trade policy uncertainties, North America is expected to decline particularly in terms of xm-forex.commodity trade volume, with exports expected to fall by 12.6% this year (previously increased by 2.2%) and imports fall by 9.6%.

Iranian port explosion has nothing to do with oil facilities

As of April 27, the explosion in Shahidrajay Port on the 26th in Abbas Port City, Hormuzgan Province, southern Ireland has killed at least 14 people and injured 750 people. The Islamic Republic of Iran reported on the 26th that the explosion had nothing to do with oil facilities near the port of Shahidrajay. Iranian government spokesman Muhajelani said on the 26th that what is certain is that the explosion occurred was a "container stored in a port that may contain chemicals". Before the fire is xm-forex.completely extinguished, it is very difficult and will take time to make accurate and professional statements about the cause of the accident. Iranian President Pezekichiyan posted on social media on the 26th, expressing deep condolences to the victims of the explosion and requesting an investigation into the incident. Iranian Interior Minister Iskander Momeni was sent to Abbas as a special representative to be responsible for the investigation of the incident and the aftermath. At around 12:00 local time on the 26th, a fire broke out near the container terminal of Shahidrajay Port, causing a violent explosion.

Source: ECB set up a task force to simplify banking rules

A person familiar with the matter said on Saturday that the ECB has formed a task force led by Deputy Governor Kindos, which will seek ways to simplify banking rules in Europe. The source said central bank governors in Germany, France, Italy and Finland were also involved in the working group. However, the ECB has no authority to amend the rules - this is a privilege of the European legislature in Brussels, so any recommendations of the Task Force need to be submitted to Brussels for consideration. It is reported that the action originated from a letter jointly signed by the governors of the central banks of Germany, France, Italy and Spain to the European xm-forex.commission this year, calling for simplification of the "overly xm-forex.complex" European banking rules.

Polls show that most Americans do not agree with Trump's rapid promotion of his political agenda

On April 26 local time, a latest poll released by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs showed that most Americans do not agree with Trump's rapid promotion of his political agenda. Even within the Republican Party, not everyone thinks he focuses on the right governance priorities. The survey shows that Americans who believe Trump is "mainly concerned with wrong priorities" are almost twice as many people who think he is "focusing on the right priorities." Most Americans are not surprised by the political turmoil in the 100 days before Trump's second term. About 70% of American adults said that Trump's performance in the first few months of his second term roughly met their expectations, and only about 30% of American adults said Trump's actions were "unexpected". The survey was conducted on 1,260 adults from April 17 to 21, with the overall sampling error margin being plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.

Omani Foreign Minister: The next round of negotiations between Iran and the United States is tentatively scheduled to be held on May 3

On the evening of April 26 local time, Omani Foreign Minister Bader stated through his social account that Iran and the United States reached a consensus on that day, hoping to reach an agreement on the basis of mutual respect and lasting xm-forex.commitment. Core principles,Both the objectives and technical concerns have been addressed. Negotiations will continue next week, with the next high-level meeting tentatively scheduled for May 3.

Japan plans to expand US corn and soybean imports to show sincerity

According to the Nihon Keizai, Japanese negotiator and Minister of Economic Regeneration, Ryo Akazawa will go to the United States from April 30 to May 2 to participate in the second round of Japan-US tariff negotiations. Ryomasa Akazawa said that the Japanese government will continue to sort out the bargaining chips available in negotiations with the United States, and the currently mentioned plans include relaxing automobile safety standards and expanding zero-tax import quotas for rice. In addition, Japan is also considering increasing U.S. corn and soybean imports. According to Japanese media reports, the United States is Japan's largest source of corn imports, accounting for nearly 80% in 2024; Japan hopes to show sincerity in cooperation by expanding the import of corn and soybeans.

Domestic News

my country has launched the deep-sea hunting model

The successful development of the "Deep-Sea No. 1" airfield marks that China's offshore oil exploration and development capabilities have entered the "ultra-deep water era" and have taken a solid step in building a maritime power. The successful development of the "Deep Sea No. 1" gas field has made major breakthroughs in my country's deep-water oil and gas development capabilities and the construction level of deep-water marine engineering equipment, marking that my country has fully grasped the "key" to open the deep-sea energy treasure of the South China Sea and achieved a historic leap from 300 meters to 1,500 meters of ultra-deep water. The "Deep Sea No. 1" energy station, standing on the large gas field, is the world's first 100,000-ton deep-water semi-submersible oil storage platform, achieving three world-class innovations during the construction stage.

Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of xm-forex.commerce: A number of international consumption clusters and inbound consumption-friendly business districts will be built. The financial department is studying special funding support.

Sheng Qiuping, Vice Minister of xm-forex.commerce, said at a press conference of the State Information Office on April 27 that the Ministry of xm-forex.commerce will continue to deepen the construction of international consumption center cities and support and promote the expansion of inbound consumption. The Ministry of xm-forex.commerce will create an international consumption environment, guide local governments to optimize foreign-related payment services, improve the efficiency of departure tax refund policies, create a number of international consumption clusters and inbound consumption-friendly business districts, and clear out the bottlenecks and pain points of foreigners' consumption in China. Recently, the financial department is actively studying the provision of special funding support to relevant parties.

From January to March 2025, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 0.8%.

From January to March, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 1509.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. From January to March, among the industrial enterprises above the designated size, state-owned holding enterprises achieved a total profit of 559.95 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; joint-stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 1110.15 billion yuan, an increase of 0.1%; foreign-invested enterprises achieved a total profit of 388.35 billion yuan, an increase of 2.8%; private enterprises achieved a total profit of 370.97 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.3%.

National Bureau of Statistics: The "two new" policies in the first quarter continue to drive the profits of the industry

NationalYu Weining, statistician of the Industrial Department of the Bureau of Statistics, interprets the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to March 2025. The "two new" policies have obvious effects on increasing their efforts and increasing their efficiency. In the first quarter, the "two new" policies continued to drive the profits of the industry. Driven by policies related to large-scale equipment updates, the profits of special equipment and general equipment industries increased by 14.2% and 9.5% year-on-year respectively, 13.4 and 8.7 percentage points higher than the average level of all industrial above-scale industries, respectively. Among them, the profits of industries such as electronic and electrical machinery special equipment manufacturing, general parts manufacturing, and cultural office machinery manufacturing have grown rapidly, with growth rates of 56.3%, 24.6%, and 9.5%. The policy of exchanging consumer goods with old-for-new has achieved obvious results. Profits in industries such as wearable smart device manufacturing, assisted vehicle manufacturing, and household kitchen appliance manufacturing increased by 78.8%, 65.8%, and 21.7%, respectively. Profits in industries such as electronic circuit manufacturing and household power equipment special accessories manufacturing in related chain industries increased by 39.4% and 18.2% respectively.

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