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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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market analysis
Fed rate cuts and geopolitical situations intensify, gold hovering at 3300 mark
Wonderful introduction:
Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows, and since ancient times, there have been sorrowful moon and songs. But we never understood it, and we thought everything was just a distant memory. Because there is no real experience, there is no deep feeling in the heart.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The Fed's interest rate cut and the geopolitical situation are intensifying, and gold hovering at the 3300 mark." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Friday (April 25), spot gold experienced a significant pullback, and fell below the $3,300 integer mark during the session, and investment sentiment obviously turned to cautiousness. The market's optimistic expectations for easing global economic and trade relations and the rebound of the US dollar index have jointly put pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold. Despite this, the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut still provides basic support for gold prices, limiting its downside space.
State analysis
The market's optimistic attitude towards easing global economic and trade relations has become the main inhibitor of gold's safe-haven attributes. U.S. President Trump said on Thursday that trade talks with other economies are underway. IG market strategist YeapJunRong said some tariff pullbacks may be seen as a positive signal, posing moderate downward pressure on safe-haven assets such as gold.
Most of the economic data released by the United States on Thursday performed well, further supporting the US dollar. The U.S. Department of Labor reported that the number of first-time unemployment claims filed slightly increased to 222,000 in the week ended April 19, indicating that the labor market is still resilient. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of xm-forex.commerce reported a 9.2% surge in durable goods orders in March, exceeding 2% expectations and a third straight month increase.
On the other hand, discussions of potential interest rate cuts by Fed officials provide support for gold prices. Cleveland Fed Chairman Beth Hammack said that if clear data on the direction of the economy is available, it may support a rate cut as early as June. In addition, Fed Director Christopher Waller said he would support a rate cut if tariffs start to put pressure on the job market. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates at least three times this year.
USDThe index reversed the previous day's decline, making gold more expensive for buyers and limiting the enthusiasm for buying.
Technical analysts interpreted:
Judging from the daily chart performance, the recent trend of gold prices has shown a high consolidation trend, with a significant pullback since the high point around US$3,500. Gold prices rebounded a certain amount after hitting the weekly low, but the rebound strength encountered resistance near the 23.6% Fibonacci pullback (around $3368-3370 area), which has now transformed into an important short-term resistance.
The technical indicators on the daily chart are still in the positive range, indicating that the medium-term upward trend has not changed. It is obvious from the chart that the upward channel formed by the gold price starting from the low of $2536.68 is still intact, and the current price is running in the middle and upper part of the channel. The 55-day moving average (MA55:3036.09 USD) and the 14-day moving average (MA14:3236.58 USD) continue to show bullish arrangements, providing good technical support.
MACD indicator shows that gold is still in the bullish area. Although it has fallen recently, it has not yet formed a dead cross. The RSI indicator fluctuates around 60, and neither enters the overbought nor the oversold area, indicating that the market is in a relatively equilibrium state.
It is worth noting that gold prices are currently hovering around the 38.2% Fibonacci pullback level (about $3,300), which is a key support area in the short term. If support fails here, gold prices may further pull back to a low of around $3,260.
Further downside support may be around the 50% Fibonacci pullback area of $3225 and the psychological integer digit of $3200. On the contrary, if the gold price can return above $3368-3370, it may retest the integer mark of $3400, and then challenge the $3425-3427 area, and eventually hit the $3500 psychological mark again.
Preview of Market Sentiment
From the market sentiment, interest-free gold, as a safe-haven asset, has performed strongly this year, with prices soaring nearly $700 and setting new historical highs several times. However, the recent optimistic expectations of global economic and trade relations have boosted market risk appetite, and the equity market has generally performed positively, and some funds have flowed out of safe-haven assets such as gold to risky assets, which is also the main psychological factor under pressure on gold prices.
Technical indicators show that although gold has seen a pullback, RSI and other indicators have not entered the oversold area, indicating that the market has not yet been pessimistic about gold prices and is more of a high-profit-taking nature. The ATR indicator is at a relatively high level, indicating that the market volatility is increasing, and in this case, the price is often accompanied by a large amplitude.
The market's attention to the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts continues to rise, and this factor will continue to affect the trend of gold prices in the short and medium term. Any data fluctuations about inflation or the employment market may trigger the market's re-evaluation of the time point of interest rate cuts, which in turn affects gold prices.
Future Outlook
Bulner Outlook: If geopolitical conflicts worsen further, or U.S. economic dataWeakening accelerates the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts, and gold prices may return to the upward track. The primary goal will be to retest $3,500. After the breakthrough, it will open a new round of upward space and may challenge the $3,550-3,600 region. In addition, if new uncertainties arise in global economic and trade relations, a rebound in risk aversion will also support gold prices.
Bell prospects: If market risk appetite continues to improve, global economic and trade relations will further ease, and the US dollar strengthens, gold prices may face greater downward pressure. They will first test the support of US$3,260. If they lose the rules, they may fall below US$3,225, and even challenge the integer mark of US$3,200. In addition, if the US economic data performs strongly, market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut may further cool down, which will also put pressure on gold prices.
In the long run, the trend of global central banks continuing to increase their holdings of gold, geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns still support the continued strength of gold prices. However, gold prices may face pressure from technical pullbacks and profit-taking in the short term, and the US$3260-3300 area will be the key battlefield for the bulls and bears' tug-of-war.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The Fed's interest rate cut and the geopolitical situation are intensifying, and gold hovering at the 3300 mark". It is carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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