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market analysis

The US dollar is approaching the 100 mark! Are the bulls ushering in a "break point" or a "match point"? Deep disassembly of technical aspects

Wonderful introduction:

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The US dollar is approaching the 100 mark! The bulls are ushering in a "break point" or a "match point"? In-depth dismantling of the technical aspects. Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Friday (April 25), the US dollar index showed a volatile upward trend in Asia and Europe. This trend is driven mainly by market expectations of easing trade relations. However, the potential disturbances in the rebalancing of funds at the end of the month still add uncertainty to the short-term trend. This article will deduce the short-term direction of the US dollar index from the perspective of xm-forex.combining technical and fundamentals.

The current 60-minute chart shows that the US dollar index quote is located between the middle rail of the Bollinger band (99.5447) and the upper rail (99.8968), and the short-term moving average system shows a bullish arrangement: the green 12-period moving average (99.6666) passes through the red 26-period moving average (99.5050), forming a golden cross signal. This structure shows that the price is increasing upwards at the 60-minute level. The RSI indicator (57.21) is in a strong area above 50, neither overbought nor showing fatigue, suggesting that short-term buying power still has room for continued space.

From the perspective of pattern, the US dollar index rebounded rapidly after retracing back to the middle track during the Asian session, indicating that there is strong support near the middle track. If the price can stabilize the 12-period moving average and break through the Bollinger band upper track of 99.8968, it may open upward space to the 100.00 integer mark. However, two risks should be wary of: First, if the RSI quickly falls below 50, it may trigger short-term bulls to take profits; second, if the price falls below the middle track support of 99.5447, the short-term trend may turn into oscillation. The support below can be paid attention to the 26-period moving average of 99.5050 and the lower track of 99.1938.

At the 4-hour level, the technical form of the US dollar index is more positive. The opening of the Bollinger band is slightly expanded, the middle rail (99.3201) has changed from flattening to upward, the price continues to run above the middle track, and the green 12-period moving average (98.5885) crosses the red 26-period moving average (99.072), forming a mid-term golden cross signal. The RSI indicator (58.20) is also above 50, but it is still far from the overbought zone, indicating that the medium-term upward momentum has not been fully released.

The current key resistance is at 100.1423, the upper trajectory of the 4-hour Bollinger Band. If the price breaks through this position, it may further challenge the 100.80-101.20 area (corresponding to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and the 21-day moving average from the peak to the bottom in 2025). However, the continuation of the medium-term trend needs to rely on fundamental support. If the market's optimism about trade relations cools down, or the price accidentally falls below the 26-period moving average of 99.072, it may trigger a pullback. The support below needs to be paid attention to the two levels of 99.10 and 98.60.

Fundamentals: News disturbance and end-of-month liquidity risk

Although the technical side shows that the US dollar index has upward potential, the fundamental contradiction still exists. On the one hand, the market's expectations for trade policy adjustments provide support for the US dollar, especially short-term rebound, driven by short-term rebound; on the other hand, China's denial of the progress of the negotiations and the unilateral tariff remarks of the United States have put market sentiment in a swaying state. A well-known institution analyzed that if the closing price this week can stand firm at 99.525 (the 23.6% retracement level of the decline from March to April), a short-term bottom pattern may be confirmed. On the contrary, you need to be wary of the risk of "fly trap" - that is, the price will quickly reversal after a false breakthrough.

In addition, the rebalancing of the US dollar's capital flow at the end of the month may cause disturbances to the exchange rate. Historical data shows that adjustments in institutional holdings at the end of the month often trigger short-term exchange rate fluctuations, and investors need to be wary of price changes caused by tightening liquidity or loosening.

Future Outlook: Keep a close eye on the key points and market sentiment resonance

xm-forex.comprehensive technical and fundamentals, the short-term direction of the US dollar index depends on two factors: First, whether it can effectively break through the 100.1423 and 100.00 psychological barriers on the upper track of the 4-hour chart; Second, the sustainability of market expectations for trade relations. If the news side maintains a eased tone and the price stands above 99.525, the US dollar index may continue to rebound, with the target pointing to the 100.80-101.20 area. On the contrary, if the closing price falls below 99.525, or the fundamentals are negatively reversed (if trade negotiations are deadlocked again), the index may return to the volatile pattern and even test support around 98.50.

The current market is at a sensitive node, and investors are advised to pay close attention to the following signals:

Technical verification: Can the 60-minute chart break through 99.8968, and whether the 4-hour chart can stand firm at 99.072;

Emotional changes: official statements and market interpretations of trade-related news;

Liquidity risk: short-term impact of capital flows on the US dollar index at the end of the month.

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The US dollar is approaching the 100 mark! Are the bulls ushering in a "break point" or a "match point"? Deep disassembly of technical aspects

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The US dollar is approaching the 100 mark! Are the bulls ushering in a "break point" or a "match point"? Deep disassembly of technical aspects

Related News

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

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