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Analysis of the weekly outlook of major global currency markets at the end of April
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Foreign Exchange Official Website】: Weekly Outlook Analysis of Major Global Currency Markets at the End of April". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Starting next Monday (April 28), the financial market will usher in a heavy data release schedule, including the initial U.S. first-quarter GDP value, US April employment report, Bank of Japan interest rate resolution, and initial euro zone inflation and GDP data.
Dollar: Focus on GDP and employment data
Finances may be the main driver of the US dollar in the near future, especially the shift in attitudes of US President Trump. U.S. Treasury Secretary Bescent xm-forex.commented that trade tensions with other economies could ease, adding that tariffs would be significantly lowered if a trade deal was reached with other economies, which was also confirmed by Trump. Furthermore, the U.S. president no longer attacks Fed Chairman Powell, which eases pressure on the Fed's interest rate cuts, which may allow it to play a supporting role in the U.S. dollar.
From the perspective of monetary policy, market expectations are dovish, and futures market performance suggests that traders generally expect the Federal Reserve to remain silent in the next meeting, but at the same time, it is also pricing the three interest rate cuts before the end of the year. However, Fed policymakers appear to be skeptical of a massive rate cut, with Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamack recommending being patient while assessing the impact of U.S. tariffs on the economy.
In terms of macroeconomics, the market is particularly concerned about the initial U.S. first-quarter GDP value to be released on Wednesday, and the growth rate is expected to slow down significantly. If the data re-induces market concerns that the U.S. economy may fall; while growth may accelerate, it may alleviate market concerns and support the dollar. Markets are paying attention to US employment report in April on Friday, and data is expected to show US employmentThe slowdown in the market, if so, could weigh on the dollar, as it could strengthen market expectations of the Fed.
GBP: Fundamental dominance
On the macroeconomic level, GBP traders have recently obtained some worrying signals from UK economic data. The first thing to note is the decline in the preliminary data of the service industry PMI in April, and the indicator reading fell below 50, suggesting an unexpected contraction of economic activity in key service industries in the UK, exacerbating market concerns about the UK's economic outlook. In addition, the slowdown in retail sales growth rate in March was less than expected, providing a positive signal to the demand side of the UK economy. Meanwhile, the CBI reported an improvement in industrial orders in April. Next week, the UK economic calendar will be relatively light, with only a few high-influence economic data released, so the market expects fundamentals to dominate the pound.
At the political level, the market is concerned about the ongoing negotiations between the UK and the US. The UK seems willing to lower tariffs and non-tariff barriers for US products to enter the UK market. If a possible trade agreement can reduce US tariffs on UK products, it may provide some support for the pound. On the other side of the English Channel, it is reported that the British government is about to reach a new defense agreement with the EU. If so, this issue may support the pound. Overall, the market believes that any improvement in the UK-EU relations will benefit the pound.
In terms of monetary policy, the market almost fully expects the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its next meeting on May 8. But the market seems to be expecting that the central bank will cut interest rates twice before the end of the year. Recently, Bank of England Governor Bailey highlighted the risks of global trade frictions to economic growth and pointed out that the Bank of England will make interest rate decisions within two weeks, which in turn is interpreted as a signal of a rate cut in May meeting, so there may be dovish tendencies among the Bank of England policymakers. Overall, if the central bank's dovish signal strengthens in the xm-forex.coming week, the market may see pressure on the pound.
Yen: Bank of Japan is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday
At the macroeconomic level, Japan's March CPI data sent mixed signals to yen traders, with the overall inflation slowing down while the core inflation rate accelerated. But even with this change, the two ratios remain significantly higher than the Bank of Japan’s target, thus likely allowing the central bank to make more rate hikes. It is worth noting that Tokyo's April CPI data accelerated beyond market expectations, which may be a prelude to the national inflation rate, given the city's population density. On the other hand, the market is concerned about the Japanese economy, as preliminary data on manufacturing PMI in April is still in a contraction, but the expansion of economic activity in the service industry has accelerated.
At the fundamental level, the adverse impact of Trump's tariffs on the Japanese economy may have on the Japanese automobile manufacturing industry. Analysts believe the issue continues to put pressure on the yen as it affects Japan's economic outlook.
At the monetary policy level, the focus of yen traders next week will be the Bank of Japan interest rate decision next Thursday. According to the yen overnight index swap, the market currently appears to expect the central bank toInterest rates will be kept unchanged and at that level, while expectations for a December meeting rate hike are close to 50%. Some analysts tend to highlight the possibility that central banks may make more rate hikes, one of which could be in the third quarter, citing the Bank of Japan's focus on Japan's inflationary pressure. Therefore, traders' attention is expected to turn to the Bank of Japan's forward guidance in the accompanying statement and subsequent press conferences. The market expects the central bank to mention uncertainty caused by Trump's tariff regime, which may ease expectations of interest rate hikes, which may put pressure on the yen, but if the Bank of Japan's focus shifts to inflationary pressures, it may indicate a possible rate hike, thus supporting the yen.
Euro: Focus on preliminary HICP and GDP data
Eurozone economic data will be a key factor in the direction of the euro next week. The market is concerned about the initial HICP inflation rate in April, which, if slowed down, could lead to a lower euro as the slowdown could strengthen market expectations for the ECB rate cut. On the other hand, if initial GDP growth accelerates in the first quarter, showing another month-on-month growth, it may provide support for the euro, as market concerns about the eurozone economy likely to fall into recession may ease.
At the monetary policy level, European Central Bank President Lagarde said yesterday that Trump's tariff policy is expected to have a deflationary effect on the eurozone economy. This may in the market see the European Central Bank's intention to cut further interest rates. If ECB policymakers send more dovish signals, it could increase dovish expectations in the market and put pressure on the euro. Currently, traders expect the ECB to cut interest rates two to three more times by the end of the year.
At the fundamental level, the market believes that the European xm-forex.commission and the German government's expansionary fiscal policy intentions have a supportive role in the euro. On the other hand, Trump's tariffs tend to put pressure on the euro, and market participants' hopes for the European and American summit are rising.
Canadian dollar: federal elections are xm-forex.coming
Canadian federal elections will be held next Monday. This election seems to have attracted widespread attention xm-forex.compared to past elections. Currently, the market expects the Liberals to win an absolute majority, which could have a short-term impact on the Canadian dollar, while the Conservatives' unexpected victory could lead to a rise in the Canadian dollar. However, the main problem that has troubled Canadian dollar traders is the current U.S. tariffs on Canadian products. If trade tensions between the two countries ease, the Canadian dollar may see some support and vice versa. At the fundamental level, oil prices have remained relatively stable over the past few days, but if oil prices fall next week (considering Canada's position as a major oil-producing economy), it could have a bearish impact on the Canadian dollar.
At the macro level, two important data will be released next week. The first is the February GDP growth rate on Wednesday, which may provide some support for the Canadian dollar if the growth rate accelerates; the second is the April manufacturing S&P PMI data, which if the data falls further, suggests that the sector's economic activity has deepened, which may put pressure on the Canadian dollar.
At the monetary policy level, the market expects the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at its next meetingIt is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates twice by the end of the year. Therefore, there is a dovish tendency in the market and any opposite signal from Bank of Canada policymakers could force the market to reprice, thus providing some support for the Canadian dollar.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex Official Website]: Analysis of the Weekly Outlook of Major Global Currency Markets at the End of April". It was carefully xm-forex.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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